India to grow at 7.3% in 2019 and 7.5% in 2020

Donald Trump trade war IMF

This can be described as one of its highest forecasts by the IMF for the country, since 2011, when the Fund projected about 17 per cent growth rate for Ghana.

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its global growth forecasts for this year due to a slowing Chinese economy and persistent trade tensions between China and the US.

The IMF lowered its growth forecast for 2019 to 3.3 percent from the previous level of 3.5 percent in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO).

Consumer prices in India increased by 3.5 per cent last year and is projected to increase by 3.9 per cent this year and 4.2 per cent next year, it said.

The Indian economy grew 6.6% in the December quarter, the slowest in five quarters.

For 2018-19, the multi-lateral institution pegged the economic growth at 7.1 per cent - a shade higher than the official projection of 7 per cent in the second advance estimates.

This puts the IMF's growth projections slightly lower than what was recently published by the SA Reserve Bank. The tight policies are pulling back the economic growth rate that will increase unemployment in the country.

Spain is the strong performer in the euro area with 2.1 percent growth in 2019, and 1.9 percent in 2020. Data released by Society of Indian Automobiles Manufacturers (Siam) on Monday signalled a slowdown in urban demand as auto sales grew 2.4% in 2018-19, the worst performance in 14 years. Growth in emerging market and developing economies will stabilize at 5 percent, though with considerable variance as emerging Asia continues to grow faster than other regions.

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Fiscal policy will need to manage trade-offs between supporting demand, protecting social spending, and ensuring that public debt remains on a sustainable path, with the optimal mix depending on country-specific circumstances. "This should be supported by strengthening goods and services tax compliance and further reducing subsidies", it said.

The report emphasized on enhancing governance of public sector banks and reforms to hiring and dismissal regulations that would incentivise job creation. "Efforts should also be enhanced on land reform to facilitate and expedite infrastructure development".

"Important steps have been taken to strengthen financial sector balance sheets, including through accelerated resolution of nonperforming assets under a simplified bankruptcy framework", it said. "A deterioration in market sentiment could rapidly tighten financing conditions in an environment of large private and public sector debt in many countries, including sovereign-bank doom loop risks" she said.

"Growth in South Africa is expected to marginally improve from 0.8% in 2018 to 1.2% in 2019 and 1.5% in 2020, a 0.2 percentage point downward revision for both years relative to the October projections", the group said in its April report.

"Growth prospects for commodity exporters are weighed down by the soft outlook for commodity prices, including for Nigeria and Angola, where growth is expected to reach about 2.6 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively, in the medium term".

"In this context, avoiding policy missteps that could harm economic activity should be the main priority", the International Monetary Fund said in its report.

"Iran; and civil tensions and conflict across several other economies, including Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, where recovery from the collapse associated with the war is now expected to be slower than previously anticipated", the report stated. "In that case, policymakers will need to adjust", she added.



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