Cruz vs. O'Rourke: Two polls show different results

Womp Womp Left Wing Celebrity Trails Ted Cruz By Nine Points in New Poll

Ted Cruz for the first time in their battle for Texas' Senate seat.

On Wednesday, a new poll showed Democratic challenger Congressman Beto O'Rourke leading Republican Senator Ted Cruz by three points in their heated race for U.S. Senate.

Tuesday, Cruz was up by nine points in the polls and then Wednesday, a different poll had O'Rourke up by two points.

But how can the polls have such different results? O'Rourke, according to a survey from the esteemed pollsters at Quinnipiac University, trailed Cruz by 9 points, more than he had in any poll since early July. "This is a poll of likely voters in which polling companies use different methods of, if you will, filtering the pool of voters that most of us have been polling through spring and summer to begin to try to make a judgment about who is more likely to show up and actually vote on election day". "It's not that you're saying who you're gonna vote for or who you gonna like".

So, is one company more reliable than the other?

"That damaged him with parts of the Texas electorate that he needs for re-election", Sabato said.

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While he believes polls generally do a pretty good job of predicting bigger picture results, he says President Trump's 2016 election shows experts can get it wrong within certain pockets or geographic regions.

"If they're going to do that, I would prefer that they give me different scenarios", Jones says.

Nate Silver, the polling guru behind FiveThirtyEight, responded to a question on Twitter about the seemingly contradictory polls from Dallas Morning News editor and former FiveThirtyEight Managing Editor Mike Wilson with his own thoughts about the difficulty of polling in Texas.

In the weeks leading up to the November 6 election, Granato expects pollsters to shift their focus from registered voters to likely voters.

The Reuters poll also found O'Rourke with a strong advantage, by about a 2-to-1 margin, with Hispanic voters in Texas over Cruz.



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