Scientists predict unusually warm climate from 2018 to 2022

UK weather warning: World to experience EXTREME heat for next FOUR YEARS

(WebDesk) - The years 2018 to 2022 should be even warmer than predicted climate models, according to a study released Tuesday that looks at the swings in moods of global warming.

A new, statistical forecasting method has suggested that over the next four years temperature rises attributable to cyclical natural effects could eclipse the long-term global warming trend.

The prediction comes as a severe and prolonged heatwave sweeps the northern hemisphere.

And frequency of such phenomena, as experts predict, in the future will only grow as further development of global warming to cover all large areas.

For 2018-2022, the impact linked to the natural variability of the climate will be "equivalent to anthropogenic global warming", which will thus result in an average temperature increase that is twice as high as with man-made warming alone, the main author Florian Sévellec, of the Physical and Space Oceanography Laboratory (CNRS / Ifremer), told AFP.

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This research was carried out before the July heatwave so it seems that scientists have already been proved right.

Rising greenhouse gas emissions are steadily adding to the upward pressure on temperatures, but humans do not feel the change as a straight line because the effects are diminished or amplified by phases of natural variation.

He cautions that this should not be seen as a prediction that Europe will definitely have more heatwaves, the USA more forest fires, South Africa more drought or the Arctic more ice melt. On the other hand, this study does not guarantee more extreme weather events, nor does it suggest widespread record highs are imminent; it simply states the probabilities of extreme heat are higher based on the expected conditions.

For years, the so-called "pause" in climate change wasn't a pause at all.

What this may mean in reality is a continuation of a years-long hot spell. "Those are more expensive to run but also use more climate physics and observational information", said Gabi Hegerl of Edinburgh University.



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