New storm forms over Atlantic; no threat to Jamaica

Subtropical Storm Ernesto

Ernesto is the fifth named storm of the US Atlantic hurricane season.

At about 11 a.m. Wednesday, Lane was located located about 1,285 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico, or a distant 2,187 miles away from Hilo.

A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast tonight, and a faster northeastward motion is expected by late Thursday and should continue through early Saturday. However, some slightly drier air is also moving in and reducing the number of storms that will form, so the rain chance will be slightly below the average.

"Maximum sustained winds are near 35 miles per hour [55 km/h] with higher gusts".

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National Hurricane Center forecasters said, "Lane seems destined" to become a major hurricane like Hector, which passed safely south of the islands last week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center.

Ernesto will spend the next day over marginally warm sea surface temperatures and in a low-shear environment - which will lead to some strengthening. Continuity prevents a higher forecast, but Lane seems destined to eventually become a category-4 hurricane like Hector. The subtropical ridge to the north of Lane is forecast to weaken slightly over the next few days, which will likely steer the cyclone to the west or west-northwest throughout the period.

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