USA farmers will export 250 million fewer soybean bushels than predicted earlier this year.
Farmers in Brazil, the world's biggest exporter, may boost production in response as China's purchases from the South American country rise, the USDA said.
-China trade war, Brazil would indisputably replace the United States as the world's largest soybean grower as China scouts, without full success, for alternative soy suppliers.
Ding Lixin, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences in Beijing, said as output of USA soybeans is expected to increase and export demand declines, U.S. farmers will suffer significant losses as 85 percent of global soybean trade growth came from China over the past 20 years and the country's demand is still the main source for the growth of global soybean trade.
China imports about 100 million metric tons of soybeans each year, and the USA contributes about 35% of that total, according to USDA.
The extra tariffs are expected to push up China's soybean import costs by 100 yuan ($14.95) per tonne from the previous month's forecast, the CASDE report said.
Farmers have been able to manage low prices because of unusually high soybean yields, but projections suggest those are returning to average.
"Exports jumped a little more than 30,000 tonnes in market year 2017-18 to almost 80,000 tonnes in large part because of increased demand from India", the report said.
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The purchases could temporarily spare US farmers from some of the pain of Chinese tariffs.
Futures prices for soybeans have tumbled by 20% at the Chicago market since late May. The soybean stockpile would surge to 580 million bushels by the time the 2019 crop is ready for harvest, the largest USA "carryover" in 74 years of USDA records.
Soybean prices remained in the doldrums on Thursday.
Imports of soybeans in the crop year that starts on October 1 will be 93.85 million tonnes, down 1.8 million tonnes, or 2 percent, from last month's estimate, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in its monthly crop report.
All the same, the average price for this year's USA soybean crop was forecast at $9.25 a bushel, 75$ lower than a month ago and the lowest in four years.
Farmers are entering their 5th year of low crop prices. and now soybeans have reached a 10-year low, in part due to Chinese tariffs.
With South American soybeans selling at a premium because of Chinese demand, importers in other countries have bought USA soybeans at comparative bargain prices in recent weeks.
Yu said China can also buy more rapeseed, sunflower seeds, and bring in more soybean meal, rapeseed meal, sunflower meal and fishmeal to fill any supply gaps.
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