Forecasters tracking disturbed weather in Caribbean, little threat to us

Tropical wave to bring heavy rains

There's a chance a tropical depression or storm could develop in the Gulf of Mexico later this week - but it's a low chance as of Monday afternoon.

The National Hurricane Center says there is a 10% chance of development within 2 days and a 20% chance within 5 days. This area of disturbed weather is expected to move westward over Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days, and little, if any, development is expected during that time.

Should this become the second tropical system of the season, and strengthens beyond depression strength, it would be named Beryl.

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The showers are associated with a tropical wave over northwestern Venezuela and a surface trough located just east of Nicaragua interacting with a large upper-level trough. Even though development chances are low at the moment, the Gulf is slightly more conducive for tropical development once it finally enters it on Friday.

A system has to have a closed center of circulation and winds of at least 39 miles per hour to be considered a tropical storm and get a name.

We will continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance in the WGNO Weather Center and continue to bring you updates throughout the week on-air and online. Hurricane Bud in the Pacific is not a threat to the Gulf Coast.

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