Australia House Price Forecast: Is the Aussie Housing Market Peaking?

National housing prices fell 0.3 in December while over the year they grew just 4.2 per cent

"We expect national dwelling prices to flat-line over 2018".

"In 2017 we saw growth rates and transactional activity gradually lose steam, with national month-on-month capital gains slowing to 0 per cent in October and November before turning negative in December", Mr Lawless said.

Faced with a wall of supply following Australia's record-breaking apartment construction boom in previous years, many were concerned that it would lead to widespread price declines, especially in Brisbane and to a lesser degree Melbourne.

Home values in Melbourne fell for the first time since February 2016, with dwelling values slipping 0.2% lower in December, but they were up 0.9% over the quarter and 8.9% for the year.

Why are property prices down nation-wide?


Tim Lawless, CoreLogic Head of Research, believes that decreasing dwelling values are a growing trend from past year.

Prices in Sydney dropped 2.1 per cent in the quarter, dragging the city's annual growth rate to 3.1 per cent from 17.1 per cent just seven months ago.

Nationally, the property market was starting to weaken as a retreat from record property prices in Sydney started to impact the overall housing sector.

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However, the harbour city's annual real estate price growth pace has plummeted from a peak of 17 per cent in May past year to just 3.1 per cent at the end of 2017 - marking a 14 per cent turnaround.

Melbourne prices also fell in December, while the cost of housing in Darwin crashed by 6.5 percent a year ago.

Since the 2014 peak, Darwin's house values had fallen by a cumulative 21.5 per cent.

"(Adelaide) is not showing a significant amount of growth, but in the same sense, we have not seen values plummeting on the back of weaker labour markets or anything like that".

The report also found unit values in Perth fell 0.9 per cent annually, but stabilised in the last quarter, growing 0.4 per cent.

"The substantial fall in values relative to rents has pushed Darwin rental yields to their highest level since July 2015 (5.9 per cent) and Darwin rental yields are the highest of any capital city", said Mr Lawless.

But internet searches do not necessarily correlate to sales, and CoreLogic data shows that Hobart remains one of the best performing capital cities in the country. For Aussies looking for affordable housing that's increasing in value, it may be time to look south.


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