Double bonanza for economy: Macros improve as inflation down, factory output up

Industrial production has made a remarkable growth at 4.3% defying slowdown from previous month’s 1.2

In a boost to the economy, the factory output growth in August surged to 9-month high of 4.2 per cent, indicating an acceleration of industrial activities after the initial setback due to GST-related destocking.

In July, factory output growth had recorded a revised 0.9 per cent growth.

According to preliminary data released by the Central Statistics Office on Thursday, the consumer price index (CPI) increased 3.28 per cent year on year against the August numbers of 3.36 per cent.

Mumbai: Consumer inflation edged lower to 3.28 per cent for the month of September, driven by housing and fuel prices. This primarily reflects weaknesses in aggregate demand. This means inflation trajectory remained well below the RBI target in H1, FY18.

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In my opinion, IIP growth will not sustain at this level, as base effect will keep shifting. Inflation not easing further dampens hopes of India Inc for interest rate cuts. RBI may take a call in March since it clearly sees inflation scaling higher.

Food prices climbed 1.25% from a year earlier, decelerating from a 1.52% rise in August. Now we see some moderation in food prices.

People also attributed the spike in retail inflation in August to GST. It previously estimated an inflation rate of 1.6%.

The number is better than our expectations. However, the with August's industrial production at 4.3%, it is inching towards 4.5% growth in July previous year. Going ahead, the key driver of inflation will be oil.

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